Prediction Followups

Well, the election is settled and everyone is as pleased as punch with the results, so I guess I should follow up on my predictions post from January. It isn’t as if I have not humiliated myself enough already.

  • Biden will win the nomination, because he is the establishment candidate. (60%)

I got this one, at least. Remember back to those fifteen seconds when we all thought Mayor Pete would win the nomination?

  • There will be the usual grievous infighting in the Democratic party from the Bernie Bros and Warren Sisters because of this. A bunch of democrats will refuse to campaign/stay home because of this. (80%)

Nope. There was definitely grumbling on Twitter, but I think most Democrats caved and voted for Biden in the end.

  • The Republicans will push the “Creepy Uncle Joe” narrative hard. (70%, conditional on him getting the nomination)

The Republicans (bless their hearts) opted for “Sleepy Joe” and not “Creepy Joe”, for the most part. There was that one photo floating around of Joe Biden and his son, and that almost flipped Sixpence’s vote, but the “Creepy Joe” narrative was much more subdued than I expected.

  • The Republicans will take as many negative traits we tend to apply to Trump and apply them to the Democratic nominee instead. They will work as hard as they can to suppress the Democractic vote and get it to stay home, especially in swing states. (80%)

This is two predictions. I think “Sleepy Joe” counts as projection, as does the narrative of fraudulent elections. I definitely am giving myself the prediction of the Republicans (bless their hearts) suppressing the Democratic vote. The closure of polling stations in Democrat-heay areas (Houston, anyone?) boiled my blood.

  • Biden will win the popular vote by a margin larger than Hillary got, but thanks to our friend Gerry Mander (and its institution the Electoral College) it won’t make any difference. Trump will be re-elected. (40%)

This is also two predictions. It looks like Biden beat Clinton both in total number of votes and in voter percentage. Sadly, activist judges appear to have hampered Trump’s re-election bid.

  • There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth. (90%)

Whatever do you mean? I am sure nobody wailed or gnashed their teeth waiting for the counts to come in.

  • Mitch McConnell will lose his seat, because the spotlight is finally on him (60%)

Bah. Did I ever get this one wrong. McConnell (bless his heart) will win re-election until he is 300 years old.

On a cheerier note, Miss Lindsey (bless his heart) also won re-election, which I am sure has all of you cheering. After all, aren’t you the ones always clamoring for more LGBTQ+ representation in politics?

  • The Democrats will keep the House (65%)

Yes, the Democrats (bless their hearts) managed to keep the House, despite losing seats. How in Heaven’s name did they manage to lose ground in this election?

  • The Democrats will take the Senate (60%)

I guess this is still up in the air because of the Georgia runoffs, but I am counting this as a failed prediction.

  • We will all be sick and tired of this election campaign by November (80%)

I don’t know about this one. I guess I cannot award myself this prediction.

I got six out of 12 predictions, for a success rate of 50%.

If my calibrations were correct I should have gotten 8.05 of them (67%), so I suck as a political analyst. I am sure you had better success in your predictions.

If there is a winner from this election, it was the Democrats. What a masterful campaign they ran! What a phenomenal candidate they chose! They did everything right and so Joe Biden won in a landslide, and now they can cheerfully conclude that there is nothing at all they need to change about their strategies in future elections. Hooray for them!

13 thoughts on “Prediction Followups

  1. Well, 50% is pretty good in the political predictions game, all things considered. Now just drag that orange mofo out of the White House kicking and screaming and we can get on with life.


    1. If I had a 50% correctness rate as a Fox News analyst I would be out on my rear end before you could recite the 14 words.


    1. Removing some of the poison, maybe. The Republicans are still there. So are the Democrats. We are so obsessed with getting the bad man out of the White House that we have cheerfully neglected the other poisons. (And yes, I firmly include the Democrats in this.)


    1. My own suspicion is that Trump (bless his heart) won’t live another four years — not because he is assassinated, but because many of these crusading right-wing figures die of cancer soon after they leave office. (Joseph McCarthy comes to mind.) But hopefully he will live a long and healthy life.


  2. Wait, how did I get dragged into the snark?
    But Lurkie, bae. So good to see you’re back to your lurking ways!!!
    You were mostly right, then. It’s been a horrible four years and there’ll be gnashing of teeth until Agolf Twitler is out. He’s wrecking the house before he goes and making things as difficult as possible.
    He will make everything possible to make the transition difficult and then blame Uncle Joe for his fuckery, as per custom. And the Repugs will suddenly grow a spine and Bitch McConnell will stonewall everything he can.
    I feel you and your idea of Uncle Joe being ‘establishment’, but you don’t give the establishment any credit for having turned several states blue and having a female of color as vice president. And for being one of the few LGBTQ inclusive candidates? Or for finding that middle ground between Hillary and Bernie? Oh, you forgot about that?
    See? I can show my teeth too.




    1. Apparently I have forgotten how to reply in-thread, but to add to my other reply: no, I don’t give the establishment much credit at all. They worked harder at defeating Sanders than they did Trump, they ignored the flyover states that could have won them actual seats in congress, and they are doing their best to crush the wing of the party represented by AOC. When given the chance they gerrymander states as thoroughly as any Republican. They are in the pockets of lobbyists and Wall Street as thoroughly as any Republican. They are not the only problem, but they are a big problem.


      1. I think Bernie defeated himself. I like his ideas (and I think AOC is the future of the party) but it’s America and it’s difficult to change the Nationalist mindset that considers any thought about other fellow Americans as Socialism (not that most Americans know what Socialism is, mind you). And I wish the Dems would gerrymander SOMETHING. I’m tired of the Repugs doing shit and not paying for it.
        Oh, and tokenism? Joe -or the establishment- was all but dead in the water when you were making your projections. Then he came from behind and beat them all. Cheeto and the Repugs saw that. Hence the campaign to dig dirt on Hunter. Kamala will be a great Vice President. And will probably use those training wheels to run for the presidency.
        And yes, I am an issue voter: I think Biden’s all-inclusive platform and cabinet will be great. Perfect? Come on, it’s politics. You’ve seen quite the number of elections and I don’t have to lecture you on ‘the establishment’. There’s no perfect candidate. But the perfect populist who will bring Nationalism in a young, pretty package is being groomed. Bernie will not be here to witness it.



        1. I am not a Bernie Bro, but there was definitely a concerted effort from the moneyed establishment to keep him and Warren as far away from the presidency as possible.

          Now you have me curious. I would like to compare the results of Super Tuesday against the election. I am deeply suspicious of how the Democratic nominee race went down. If Klobuchar and Buttiegieg had not dropped out just before the big day the story might have been quite different. How convenient for Biden.


  3. Choosing Harris as VP was one of the most cynical acts of tokenism I have seen in a while. I am sure she will do an adequate job but she was chosen because she is a brown woman who obediently rolled over when the establishment Dems decided Biden was going to be the nominee. Celebrate if you want, but understand how you are being manipulated here.

    We drag you into the snark because we love you.


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