Prediction Followups

Well, the election is settled and everyone is as pleased as punch with the results, so I guess I should follow up on my predictions post from January. It isn’t as if I have not humiliated myself enough already.

  • Biden will win the nomination, because he is the establishment candidate. (60%)

I got this one, at least. Remember back to those fifteen seconds when we all thought Mayor Pete would win the nomination?

  • There will be the usual grievous infighting in the Democratic party from the Bernie Bros and Warren Sisters because of this. A bunch of democrats will refuse to campaign/stay home because of this. (80%)

Nope. There was definitely grumbling on Twitter, but I think most Democrats caved and voted for Biden in the end.

  • The Republicans will push the “Creepy Uncle Joe” narrative hard. (70%, conditional on him getting the nomination)

The Republicans (bless their hearts) opted for “Sleepy Joe” and not “Creepy Joe”, for the most part. There was that one photo floating around of Joe Biden and his son, and that almost flipped Sixpence’s vote, but the “Creepy Joe” narrative was much more subdued than I expected.

  • The Republicans will take as many negative traits we tend to apply to Trump and apply them to the Democratic nominee instead. They will work as hard as they can to suppress the Democractic vote and get it to stay home, especially in swing states. (80%)

This is two predictions. I think “Sleepy Joe” counts as projection, as does the narrative of fraudulent elections. I definitely am giving myself the prediction of the Republicans (bless their hearts) suppressing the Democratic vote. The closure of polling stations in Democrat-heay areas (Houston, anyone?) boiled my blood.

  • Biden will win the popular vote by a margin larger than Hillary got, but thanks to our friend Gerry Mander (and its institution the Electoral College) it won’t make any difference. Trump will be re-elected. (40%)

This is also two predictions. It looks like Biden beat Clinton both in total number of votes and in voter percentage. Sadly, activist judges appear to have hampered Trump’s re-election bid.

  • There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth. (90%)

Whatever do you mean? I am sure nobody wailed or gnashed their teeth waiting for the counts to come in.

  • Mitch McConnell will lose his seat, because the spotlight is finally on him (60%)

Bah. Did I ever get this one wrong. McConnell (bless his heart) will win re-election until he is 300 years old.

On a cheerier note, Miss Lindsey (bless his heart) also won re-election, which I am sure has all of you cheering. After all, aren’t you the ones always clamoring for more LGBTQ+ representation in politics?

  • The Democrats will keep the House (65%)

Yes, the Democrats (bless their hearts) managed to keep the House, despite losing seats. How in Heaven’s name did they manage to lose ground in this election?

  • The Democrats will take the Senate (60%)

I guess this is still up in the air because of the Georgia runoffs, but I am counting this as a failed prediction.

  • We will all be sick and tired of this election campaign by November (80%)

I don’t know about this one. I guess I cannot award myself this prediction.

I got six out of 12 predictions, for a success rate of 50%.

If my calibrations were correct I should have gotten 8.05 of them (67%), so I suck as a political analyst. I am sure you had better success in your predictions.

If there is a winner from this election, it was the Democrats. What a masterful campaign they ran! What a phenomenal candidate they chose! They did everything right and so Joe Biden won in a landslide, and now they can cheerfully conclude that there is nothing at all they need to change about their strategies in future elections. Hooray for them!