Predictions

I guess the primaries are going to rev up any day now, so it is time to make a bunch of predictions about this awful election. If things go terribly you can blame me; if things go well you can point and laugh at my poor predicting skills. I will offer confidences in the following predictions, but I am no rationalist superpredictor.

I predict:

  • Biden will win the nomination, because he is the establishment candidate. (60%)
  • There will be the usual grievous infighting in the Democratic party from the Bernie Bros and Warren Sisters because of this. A bunch of democrats will refuse to campaign/stay home as a result. (80%)
  • The Republicans will push the “Creepy Uncle Joe” narrative hard. (70%, conditional on him getting the nomination)
  • The Republicans will take the many negative traits we tend to apply to Trump and apply them to the Democratic nominee instead. They will work as hard as they can to suppress the Democractic vote and get it to stay home, especially in swing states. (80%)
  • Biden will win the popular vote by a margin larger than Hillary got, but thanks to our friend Gerry Mander* (and its institution the Electoral College) it won’t make any difference. Trump will be re-elected. (40%)
  • There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth. (90%)
  • Mitch McConnell will lose his seat, because the spotlight is finally on him (60%)
  • The Democrats will keep the House (65%)
  • The Democrats will take the Senate (60%)
  • We will all be sick and tired of this election campaign by November (80%)

What would I like to have happen? That’s a very different kettle of fish.

Thus ends my delusional prognosticating. Hopefully I will shut up about the election now.

Wouldn’t it be hilarious if THIS was the post that finally alienates everybody and gets me cancelled from the blogosphere?

* I should probably amend this to say that I am an idiot; in most states (but not all) gerrymandering for the presidency is not much of an issue, because votes are tallied state-wide. Maybe this means I should rate the Democrats winning the House/Senate lower?

17 thoughts on “Predictions

  1. Oh, Lurkie
    I wish you were wrong. The Dems have formed a circular firing squad and nothing is going to move them away from it. There is a big probability that Uncle Joe will end up being the candidate chosen to go against IMPOTUS and many of the things you predict will become true.
    Cheeto may end up winning thanks to the electoral college, the Russians, the lies and misinformation pushed by the Repugs and the immense stupidity of so many people who think an election is some kind of popularity contest.
    SIGH.

    XOXO

    Like

    1. I must be living in a bubble. I do not know a single person who is enthusiastic about Biden. They must exist somewhere, but not in this neck of the blogosphere.

      Like

  2. banned from the blogosphere????

    I couldn’t agree more with your bullet points. Especially the dems in fighting point

    I’ve already put my rather hefty order for gin in for the next four years.

    Like

    1. Yep. I’ll be cancelled soon. If not for this entry then the next one for sure (but you’ll still be in hibernation, so hopefully you will miss it).

      Like

  3. OL…… I believe you have hit the nail on it’s head…. and You are Correct .. however with having both houses of Congress could prove to be interesting.. .. As always .. POTUS could then modify his approach.

    Like

    1. I do not expect that I am correct in these predictions. Their value is in recording my feelings around the election BEFORE silly season starts, so that I can look back and remember how I was feeling back then.

      Like

  4. Perhaps you should replace Wolf Blitzer on CNN! I think you are correct although I’m a little shaky on your senate prediction.

    Like

    1. Do you feel it is more likely or less likely that the Dems will take the Senate? Apparently more Republican seat are up for grabs than Democratic ones?

      I am not that confident either, but relatively few number of seats need to switch in order for the Democrats to win.

      Like

      1. As of today, I think it will remain as is. I know that sounds pessimistic.This election cycle is the first time I have donated money to multiple Dems outside the state of Florida. This is THE election for a government of and by the people or having a dictator/king.

        Like

  5. Oh, dear Lurker, how I wish you lived here in Canada! Yes, we have our problems but our politicians are nowhere near as crazy as the Trump and MAGA crowd in the USA. If you want to escape the madness, I will gladly sponsor you to immigrate here. All you have to do is learn how to spell properly. How hard can it be to stick a few “u”s in some words?

    Like

    1. Been there, done that, wrote the blog post. Socialist dystopias are overrated.

      Speaking of politicians, I hear the Wexit party is now official. Finally you will have somebody that represents your interests during the next election.

      Like

  6. I suspect Debra’s evil cat is making her say these bizarre immigration invitations.

    Anyway, they usually crucify people that try to speak political truths so maybe you should run for the border Lurky. Sadly I feel the same way, I feel many of these things will happen-ish. I’m also starting to become uneasy if he loses, I’m starting to notice an underground movement of the wingnut club who feel he must remain at all costs.

    Like

    1. Her cat is not evil, just imperious.

      We worry about presidents we don’t like leaving all the time. We used to say the same thing about George W Bush. But he left peacefully and (in another five years) maybe Trump will as well.

      Like

    1. He may win again, but you will note that I gave my particular prediction only a 40% confidence. I do think he might win in other ways, but it is also plausible that establishment Republicans (who hate the guy) will turn on him and not campaign as hard at they otherwise might.

      I have a very difficult time imagining Trump winning a second term, but I felt that way about him winning a first term. I remember commenting on Dr Spo’s blog that there was no way Trump could win, which is probably the reason he won.

      Liked by 1 person

Comments are closed.